First Time Buyer Share And Mortgage Risk Grow

Dated: May 27 2015

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AEI: Risk for freshman buyers hits series high

high risk

First-time buyers accounted for 57.9% of primary owner-occupied home purchase mortgages with a government guarantee, up from 56.8% and 57.4% respectively in April 2014 and 2013, according to the American Enterprise Institute's International Center on Housing Risk

The Combined FBMSI (which measures the share of first-time buyers for both government-guaranteed and private-sector mortgages) stood at an estimated 52.2%, up from 51.2% and 51.8% respectively in April 2014 and 2013.

The number of primary owner-occupied purchase mortgages going to first-time buyers over the 6-month period of November 2014-April 2015 totaled an estimated 577,000, up 8,5% from the 532,000 mortgages over the same 6-month period in 2013-2014.

The agency FBMRI stood at a series record of 15.28%, up 0.2 percentage point from the average over the prior three months and up 0.9 percentage point from a year earlier.

The agency FBMRI is nearly 6.5 percentage points higher than the mortgage risk index for repeat homebuyers.

The First-Time Buyer Mortgage Share and Mortgage Risk Indexes (FBMSI and FBMRI) are key housing market indicators based on monthly data for nearly all government-guaranteed home purchase loans, which greatly reduces the risk of sample error.

By relying on millions of loans, this approach stands in contrast to traditional first-time buyer surveys based on small samples of homebuyers or real estate agents.  

In April 2015, first-time buyers accounted for 57.9% of primary owner-occupied home purchase mortgages with a government guarantee, according to the Agency First-Time Buyer Mortgage Share Index. 

As shown in the chart below, the April share was roughly 1 percentage point above both the revised share of 57.0% for March and the April 2014 share of 56.8%. 

Although the first-time buyer share last month reached the highest level in its 25-month history, the series has displayed no clear trend apart from seasonal variation.  


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Mark Ross

For Mark Ross, founder of Ross NW Real Estate and professional real estate broker, real estate has always been the career of choice. During his 30 years in the industry, Mark has gained experience in ....

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