First Time Buyer Share And Mortgage Risk Grow

Dated: 05/27/2015

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AEI: Risk for freshman buyers hits series high

high risk

First-time buyers accounted for 57.9% of primary owner-occupied home purchase mortgages with a government guarantee, up from 56.8% and 57.4% respectively in April 2014 and 2013, according to the American Enterprise Institute's International Center on Housing Risk

The Combined FBMSI (which measures the share of first-time buyers for both government-guaranteed and private-sector mortgages) stood at an estimated 52.2%, up from 51.2% and 51.8% respectively in April 2014 and 2013.

The number of primary owner-occupied purchase mortgages going to first-time buyers over the 6-month period of November 2014-April 2015 totaled an estimated 577,000, up 8,5% from the 532,000 mortgages over the same 6-month period in 2013-2014.

The agency FBMRI stood at a series record of 15.28%, up 0.2 percentage point from the average over the prior three months and up 0.9 percentage point from a year earlier.

The agency FBMRI is nearly 6.5 percentage points higher than the mortgage risk index for repeat homebuyers.

The First-Time Buyer Mortgage Share and Mortgage Risk Indexes (FBMSI and FBMRI) are key housing market indicators based on monthly data for nearly all government-guaranteed home purchase loans, which greatly reduces the risk of sample error.

By relying on millions of loans, this approach stands in contrast to traditional first-time buyer surveys based on small samples of homebuyers or real estate agents.  

In April 2015, first-time buyers accounted for 57.9% of primary owner-occupied home purchase mortgages with a government guarantee, according to the Agency First-Time Buyer Mortgage Share Index. 

As shown in the chart below, the April share was roughly 1 percentage point above both the revised share of 57.0% for March and the April 2014 share of 56.8%. 

Although the first-time buyer share last month reached the highest level in its 25-month history, the series has displayed no clear trend apart from seasonal variation.  


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Mark Ross

For Mark Ross, founder of Ross NW Real Estate and professional real estate broker, real estate has always been the career of choice. During his 25+ years in the industry, Mark has gained experience in....

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